Fri, Mar 22, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 111 | 08 | 125 |
| CBJ | 17 | 313 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:56CBJJared BollAssists: Colton Gillies, Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 4:24CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:05CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 13:56CBJNick FolignoAssists: R.J. Umberger, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:20CBJArtem AnisimovUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 13:14CBJColton GilliesAssists: Jack Johnson, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:15CGYTim Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:28CBJDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:36CGYBrian McGrattan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:27CGYCory Sarich: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:38CBJDerek MacKenzie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cervenka won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBegin – McGrattan – Jackman6:34
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Comeau11:58
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–3
- Iginla – Hudler – Cervenka13:26
xG 0.26–0.65 (28%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross8:25
xG 0.23–0.65 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Smith11:52
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Wideman – Bouwmeester2:16
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Brodie12:15
xG 0.52–0.82 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Calvert – Atkinson7:19
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen11:20
xG 0.74–0.47 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Atkinson3:03
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Prospal – Brassard – Letestu10:28
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson13:43
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Prout15:58
xG 0.63–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Erixon15:21
xG 0.40–0.43 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).