Fri, Mar 22, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 6, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 29 | 28 | 624 |
| WPG | 010 | 012 | 19 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:05WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Steve Oleksy · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 5:50WSHJay BeagleAssists: Joel Ward, Matt Hendricks · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 7:35WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.02 xG4–0
- P3 1:51WSHMike GreenAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.04 xG5–0
- P3 9:51WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Grant Clitsome, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
- P3 15:58WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG6–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:12WSHBrooks Laich: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:12WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:12WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:09WSHSteve Oleksy: Holding2 min
- P1 19:38WSHMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:13WSHBrooks Laich: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:05WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:31WPGChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:04WPGGrant Clitsome: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:09WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:38WSHJay Beagle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Hendricks – Beagle7:24
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault9:34
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Laich – Brouwer8:21
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson8:47
xG 0.38–0.84 (31%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Oleksy2:43
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carlson12:21
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Oleksy11:08
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 3–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Miettinen – Kane8:54
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Antropov – Thorburn – Wellwood6:34
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little7:10
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Tangradi – Cormier – Burmistrov7:23
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian11:54
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Clitsome2:17
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome8:58
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).