Fri, Mar 22, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 28 | 16 | 523 |
| ANA | 112 | 015 | 07 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:36DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Brendan Smith, Jimmy Howard · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 14:59DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Damien Brunner, Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 3:06DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Johan Franzen, Jakub Kindl · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 12:46DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 15:17DETJohan FranzenAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:15ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:48DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:22DETBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:59DETJoakim Andersson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:23DETJonathan Ericsson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:23ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00DETBrian Lashoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00ANAKyle Palmieri: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:57DETBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:57ANABobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:57ANABobby Ryan: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader12:43
xG 0.81–0.50 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 4–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Miller13:13
xG 0.71–0.51 (58%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Cleary – Andersson – Brunner10:02
xG 0.48–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Eaves – Emmerton – Nyquist9:32
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson13:58
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Kronwall – White3:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Lashoff12:37
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Beleskey – Etem7:56
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri3:38
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Ryan – Holland2:21
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Selanne – Palmieri – Holland7:54
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Fowler15:41
xG 1.21–0.07 (95%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Allen – Beauchemin2:02
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lydman – Sbisa2:07
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).