Sat, Mar 23, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 14 | 19 | 010 | 223 |
| NSH | 413 | 04 | 17 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11NSHTaylor BeckAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Jonathon Blum · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:21NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Bobby Butler, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 9:29CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Tim Erixon · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 9:46NSHDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Taylor Beck · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–3
- P1 10:15NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Bobby Butler, Chris Mueller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 14:53CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Cam Atkinson, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:36NSHRoman JosiENAssists: Mike Fisher, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:11CBJVinny Prospal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:28NSHDavid Legwand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27NSHRich Clune: Interference5 min
- P1 10:27NSHRich Clune: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 13:34NSHMike Fisher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:06NSHBrandon Yip: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:06CBJDerek MacKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:45CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen11:51
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Prospal – Brassard – Letestu11:54
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson11:54
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies8:20
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Nikitin13:51
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Prout13:25
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Erixon – Moore13:07
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Erat – Kostitsyn12:04
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Legwand – Beck – Bourque10:16
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Halischuk – Mueller – Butler5:04
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Yip – Spaling – Butler5:01
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:55
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Gill – Blum10:02
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Klein – Bartley16:37
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).