Sun, Mar 24, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 214 | 04 | 05 | 01 | 2 | 324 |
| NYR | 27 | 09 | 011 | 05 | 1 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 9:45WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Steve Oleksy, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 14:12NYRArron AshamAssists: Kris Newbury · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 18:03NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Brad Richards, Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Rick Nash stopped
- 2. WSH Matt Hendricks stopped
- 3. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 5. NYR Derek Stepan scored
- 6. WSH Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 7. NYR Brad Richards stopped
- 8. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:43NYRAnton Stralman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:31WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:56WSHKarl Alzner: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:40NYRBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 2:58NYRDan Girardi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:58WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:58NYRCarl Hagelin: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Laich – Brouwer12:16
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Ward – Hendricks – Beagle11:28
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault7:22
xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:03
xG 0.23–0.44 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner19:34
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Orlov – Oleksy13:09
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Hillen – Carlson17:44
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Gaborik – Boyle5:01
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Nash8:34
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Kreider6:54
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Asham – Newbury – Powe6:01
xG 0.07–0.05 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Stralman10:09
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh15:32
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Stralman – Del Zotto2:13
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).