Mon, Mar 25, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 28 | 08 | 03 | 1 | 225 |
| BOS | 09 | 112 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:04TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 8:01TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 9:49BOSMilan LucicAssists: Rich Peverley, Jordan Caron · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 10:36BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 3. BOS Patrice Bergeron scored
- 4. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 6. TOR Nikolay Kulemin stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:19TORColton Orr: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:27BOSAaron Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:37BOSDennis Seidenberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:30BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:08TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:08BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Orr – McClement – McLaren7:36
xG 0.02–0.04 (28%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri13:56
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:01
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Hamilton9:05
xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kostka – Gardiner13:42
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson19:15
xG 0.52–0.81 (39%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
- Franson – Fraser13:06
xG 0.07–0.71 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Marchand8:45
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Paille – Bergeron – Seguin11:15
xG 0.76–0.40 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Peverley – Lucic – Caron5:53
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic5:51
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Johnson11:38
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Chara – Seidenberg2:43
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski12:21
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).