Mon, Mar 25, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 112 | 19 | 05 | 1 | 234 |
| OTT | 16 | 14 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 314 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Mike Lundin, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 15:13NJDAndrei LoktionovAssists: Steve Bernier, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 19:43OTTColin GreeningAssists: Kyle Turris, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 6:05NJDMarek ZidlickyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 2. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 3. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
- 4. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. NJD Travis Zajac scored
- 7. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 8. NJD Andrei Loktionov stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:21OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:34NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 0:34NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:34OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac10:17
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Carter – Loktionov4:14
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Bernier – Carter – Henrique4:24
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Sestito – Pesonen2:50
xG 0.02–0.00 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Harrold5:36
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Greene10:38
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold9:25
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Latendresse – Turris2:51
xG 0.46–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Regin – Kassian – Condra4:49
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Regin – Condra3:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Greening – Turris11:11
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Wiercioch17:49
xG 0.81–0.34 (71%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips2:04
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Phillips – Lundin12:20
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).