Mon, Mar 25, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 07 | 112 | 226 |
| NSH | 110 | 212 | 04 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Corey Potter, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:51NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Mike Fisher, Martin Erat · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 4:31NSHKevin KleinAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:33NSHChris MuellerGWGAssists: Brandon Yip, Victor Bartley · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 7:03EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Ales Hemsky, Nick Schultz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:49EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:42NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:26NSHJonathon Blum: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:50EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P3 8:15NSHJonathon Blum: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:04NSHDavid Legwand: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins3:49
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Belanger – Jones – Brown3:05
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov2:16
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smyth – Jones – Brown2:33
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Potter – Fistric11:24
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Smid – Petry16:24
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Schultz – Schultz14:39
xG 0.25–0.61 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Beck – Bourque12:32
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Yip – Mueller – Butler7:40
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn10:16
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
- Clune – Hornqvist – Spaling7:54
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Bartley13:38
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi19:55
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Gill – Blum9:16
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).