Tue, Mar 26, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 27 | 011 | 113 | 331 |
| WSH | 09 | 26 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:24NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Keith Aucoin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:56NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 10:05WSHMike RibeiroAssists: Troy Brouwer · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:28WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Marcus Johansson, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 14:42NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Matt Moulson · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:52NYIMark Streit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:45NYIFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:03WSHSteve Oleksy: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:17WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P3 11:38NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – McDonald – Grabner8:33
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas6:31
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares14:25
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:06
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Visnovsky – Hickey15:21
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:25
xG 0.61–0.90 (41%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Carkner – Streit9:53
xG 0.03–0.45 (5%)attempts 2–15goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Perreault4:11
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:13
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Ward – Hendricks – Beagle2:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Wolski – Beagle2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner14:29
xG 0.89–0.33 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Hillen – Carlson16:55
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Orlov – Oleksy10:21
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).