Tue, Mar 26, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 14 | 25 | 010 | 319 |
| STL | 08 | 021 | 014 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:29EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 3:26EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 5:17EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P2 0:25EDMAles Hemsky: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:22STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:22EDMJordan Eberle: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:03STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:03EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:09EDMAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:43STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:43EDMLadislav Smid: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:06STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:06EDMNail Yakupov: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:45
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 13–15goals 3–0
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell9:11
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Jones – Yakupov9:47
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi10:27
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz14:57
xG 0.92–0.61 (60%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry15:59
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter15:58
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Perron – Tarasenko8:45
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Nichol – Porter – Schwartz4:24
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- McDonald – Oshie – Berglund9:28
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Stewart12:42
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRedden – Shattenkirk12:54
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Russell – Pietrangelo4:54
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Polak4:18
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).