Wed, Mar 27, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 6, Boston Bruins 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 15 | 315 | 02 | 1 | 628 |
| BOS | 09 | 417 | 111 | 04 | 0 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15MTLMichael RyderAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:53MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 3:32BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:23BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–2
- P2 17:01BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 17:36BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 3:58MTLMichael RyderAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 11:50BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 12:18MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
- P3 19:51MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. BOS Tyler Seguin stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 5. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 6. MTL Lars Eller stopped
- 7. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 8. MTL Michael Ryder stopped
- 9. BOS Nathan Horton stopped
- 10. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
- 11. BOS Rich Peverley stopped
- 12. MTL Brendan Gallagher scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:38BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:38MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:54BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:54BOSDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:54MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:23MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:46BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:15MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:16BOSAndrew Ference: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:32MTLMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:18BOSDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P3 15:11BOSZdeno Chara: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:33BOSAaron Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 3:40MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:36
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Halpern – Moen – Blunden5:41
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Armstrong – Eller – Galchenyuk10:14
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec11:29
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 9–19goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:16
xG 0.46–0.39 (55%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Gorges – Emelin2:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Tinordi6:27
xG 0.05–0.04 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin7:06
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 15–4goals 3–0
- Paille – Bergeron – Seguin4:18
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic13:38
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Pandolfo – Peverley – Caron3:05
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton13:59
xG 0.98–0.35 (74%)attempts 20–9goals 3–0
- Seidenberg – Krug5:47
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Ference – Krug3:34
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).