Wed, Mar 27, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 29 | 18 | 00 | 327 |
| MIN | 18 | 114 | 110 | 15 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:15MINTorrey MitchellAssists: Mike Rupp, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P2 5:29MINMatt CullenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 11:13PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Boyd Gordon, David Moss · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 14:28PHXBoyd GordonAssists: Keith Yandle, David Moss · Deflected, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 1:52PHXMichael StoneAssists: Shane Doan, Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:05MINRyan SuterAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:43MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:30PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:25MINJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:25PHXDavid Moss: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:32PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:32MINZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:16MINJustin Falk: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:36PHXShane Doan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:44PHXRostislav Klesla: Interference2 min
- P3 9:54MINTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:35PHXAntoine Vermette: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:24
xG 0.64–0.13 (83%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker9:07
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Torres – Lombardi – Chipchura3:05
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Lombardi – Chipchura – Boedker2:20
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Stone13:30
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson18:05
xG 0.74–0.80 (48%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stone2:20
xG 0.01–0.19 (3%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Konopka – Mitchell6:41
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck11:11
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle15:52
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi9:50
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon2:28
xG 0.48–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon11:21
xG 0.95–0.73 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Falk9:46
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).