Thu, Mar 28, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 110 | 29 | 03 | 2 | 436 |
| PHI | 29 | 014 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:25PHIMike KnubleAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 19:00NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 10:04NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Keith Aucoin, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:37NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:30PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. NYI Brad Boyes scored
- 5. PHI Brayden Schenn stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 7. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 8. NYI Josh Bailey scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:47NYILubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:21NYIColin McDonald: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:21PHIScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:43PHIKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:58PHIBruno Gervais: Delaying game2 min
- P3 18:26NYIFrans Nielsen: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- P3 19:59PHILuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- OT 5:00NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas3:42
xG 0.51–0.13 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares10:15
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas5:15
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:07
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Streit12:17
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:15
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey16:19
xG 0.51–0.90 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:44
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier9:30
xG 0.19–0.07 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Knuble – Gagne – Fedotenko4:34
xG 0.41–0.47 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read10:29
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Gervais7:09
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Timonen – Schenn11:04
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Foster – Schenn3:04
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).