Thu, Mar 28, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Rangers 0, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 04 | 010 | 010 | 024 |
| OTT | 09 | 112 | 28 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:11OTTAndre BenoitPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Neil · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 12:16OTTGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 17:58OTTColin GreeningENAssists: Chris Neil, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:20OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:10NYRRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:36OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P2 17:48NYRAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:48OTTJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:45OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Callahan – Miller5:52
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan11:00
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Gaborik – Kreider4:52
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Boyle – Kreider3:08
xG 0.01–0.09 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Stralman11:55
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Eminger – McDonagh15:55
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:19
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – O'Brien2:25
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Latendresse – Silfverberg – Zibanejad6:51
xG 0.27–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Turris – Hoffman12:57
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Smith5:29
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit16:54
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba15:16
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Wiercioch11:44
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).