Thu, Mar 28, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 013 | 214 | 213 | 440 |
| STL | 07 | 18 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:42LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P2 10:55STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: David Perron, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 12:49LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Jarret Stoll, Dwight King · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 6:44STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–2
- P3 17:17LAKMike RichardsGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:44LAKJustin WilliamsENAssists: Dustin Brown, Slava Voynov · Backhand, 0.77 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:15LAKTrevor Lewis: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:06STLBarret Jackman: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:25STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
- P2 6:16STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:57LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:21LAKKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:44STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Toffoli9:43
xG 1.58–0.11 (94%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar12:08
xG 1.11–0.20 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King6:55
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Fraser – King – Nolan4:58
xG 0.03–0.03 (54%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty17:54
xG 1.10–0.23 (83%)attempts 29–9goals 1–0
- Martinez – Ellerby9:03
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov15:33
xG 1.53–1.00 (61%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Stewart – Schwartz3:29
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nichol – Reaves – Schwartz5:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie12:37
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Perron – Tarasenko9:07
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Pietrangelo3:00
xG 0.56–0.10 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Redden – Shattenkirk11:08
xG 0.13–0.31 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Polak – Russell14:48
xG 0.24–1.06 (18%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).