Thu, Mar 28, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Phoenix Coyotes 7, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 613 | 19 | 07 | 729 |
| NSH | 317 | 011 | 110 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46PHXMartin HanzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 3:42PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Martin Hanzal · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 3:50PHXDavid MossAssists: Rob Klinkhammer, Rostislav Klesla · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P1 7:08PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P1 8:26PHXKeith YandlePPGWGAssists: Radim Vrbata, Shane Doan · Slap, 0.06 xG5–0
- P1 9:03NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Jonathon Blum, Gabriel Bourque · Snap, 0.14 xG5–1
- P1 9:33NSHRich CluneAssists: Roman Josi, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–2
- P1 15:57PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–2
- P1 16:29NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: David Legwand, Taylor Beck · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–3
- P2 2:44PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Paul Bissonnette, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.18 xG7–3
- P3 10:02NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Fisher, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.05 xG7–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:53NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:17PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:12PHXPaul Bissonnette: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:24PHXDavid Schlemko: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:15NSHMike Fisher: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:00PHXRostislav Klesla: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:08PHXRostislav Klesla: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:08NSHBrandon Yip: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer8:50
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Torres – Vermette – Bissonnette6:08
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal12:22
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 3–1
- Sullivan – Lombardi – Boedker9:41
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko13:12
xG 0.72–0.40 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson14:40
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:58
xG 0.01–0.29 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestClune – Spaling – Beck2:45
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Bourque4:24
xG 0.37–0.03 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – Beck – Bourque4:49
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 2–1
- Clune – Hornqvist – Spaling5:52
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Blum4:47
xG 0.50–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi21:05
xG 1.08–0.88 (55%)attempts 23–21goals 1–4
- Gill – Blum7:53
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).