Thu, Mar 28, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 212 | 18 | 110 | 430 |
| EDM | 18 | 28 | 39 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Matt Calvert · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:04CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Cam Atkinson, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:09EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Sam Gagner · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 0:39EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 18:34CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Nikita Nikitin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 19:05EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Nail Yakupov, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 0:27CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 3:06EDMCorey PotterAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 16:52EDMAles HemskyGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–5
- P3 19:18EDMSam GagnerENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.50 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:03CBJArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:52CBJSean Collins: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:10EDMMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:30EDMLennart Petrell: Interference2 min
- P3 8:36EDMMagnus Paajarvi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Calvert – Atkinson12:34
xG 1.07–0.06 (95%)attempts 23–4goals 4–1
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Boll3:11
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Umberger – Collins – Johansen10:31
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Prospal – Brassard – Letestu10:35
xG 0.46–0.65 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Erixon2:17
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout12:22
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski14:18
xG 0.76–0.72 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 4–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi10:48
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 3–2
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell7:32
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:26
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Jones – Yakupov10:41
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Potter2:24
xG 0.01–0.01 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Potter10:55
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Whitney – Schultz4:36
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).