Fri, Mar 29, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Anaheim Ducks 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 18 | 17 | 224 |
| CHI | 09 | 010 | 17 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15ANACorey PerryAssists: Bobby Ryan, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 2:26CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Duncan Keith, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 17:52ANASheldon SourayGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:55CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:01ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:32ANALuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P3 1:01ANASheldon Souray: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Winnik – Palmieri9:08
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:28
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Selanne – Steckel – Cogliano2:10
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Etem2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Sbisa16:07
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin17:49
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Allen – Fowler15:05
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Toews – Saad9:34
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Mayers – Carcillo – Kruger3:57
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Bolland – Kane – Hayes12:19
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw6:43
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook17:47
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brookbank – Leddy11:54
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson16:32
xG 0.35–0.77 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).