Fri, Mar 29, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 112 | 114 | 333 |
| DAL | 217 | 011 | 35 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:31DALTomas VincourAssists: Reilly Smith, Aaron Rome · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P1 18:48MINDevin SetoguchiAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 15:16MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 1:02DALErik ColeAssists: Philip Larsen, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 2:10DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 12:40DALCody EakinPPAssists: Derek Roy, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.40 xG2–5
- P3 19:00MINTorrey MitchellAssists: Dany Heatley, Cal Clutterbuck · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:52MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:45MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:44DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:00MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:00MINRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:32DALAaron Rome: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:12MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:23DALReilly Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23MINZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23MINZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:23MINMike Rupp: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:23MINZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:23DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:50DALCody Eakin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:49DALEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:49MINJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:17DALAaron Rome: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi8:24
xG 0.77–0.62 (56%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell7:28
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle11:51
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck10:39
xG 0.11–0.45 (20%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Falk12:35
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon12:19
xG 0.84–0.68 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Suter – Brodin15:55
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Nystrom – Benn9:27
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Roussel – Eakin2:09
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Cole – Benn – Roussel2:12
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Roy – Eriksson12:04
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Larsen9:36
xG 0.79–0.30 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Robidas – Dillon15:05
xG 0.85–0.91 (48%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski12:51
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).