Fri, Mar 29, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 112 | 48 | 15 | 625 |
| CGY | 011 | 311 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:20CBJMark LetestuSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:54CGYBrian McGrattanAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Steve Begin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 8:44CBJVinny ProspalAssists: R.J. Umberger, Nikita Nikitin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 10:12CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Cam Atkinson, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 11:09CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 16:19CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Mark Letestu, Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 17:48CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Roman Cervenka · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 18:55CBJRyan JohansenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 14:20CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Matt Stajan · Snap, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 19:24CBJR.J. UmbergerENAssists: Artem Anisimov, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:08CBJSean Collins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:28CBJDalton Prout: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:28CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:46CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:37CBJJared Boll: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:08CBJRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:01CBJMark Letestu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Brassard – Letestu12:18
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies4:49
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Calvert – Atkinson12:12
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Umberger – Collins – Johansen9:20
xG 0.33–0.69 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson11:37
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout11:40
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Wisniewski – Erixon4:48
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Backlund – Cervenka11:15
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross12:15
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Comeau13:47
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Begin – McGrattan – Jackman2:45
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Giordano18:44
xG 0.91–0.64 (59%)attempts 20–20goals 1–0
- Sarich – Butler10:15
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Brodie14:32
xG 0.39–0.57 (41%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).