Sat, Mar 30, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 1, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 012 | 110 | 134 |
| PHI | 17 | 17 | 18 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:19PHIMike KnublePPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 3:18PHIMatt ReadGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Bruno Gervais · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 5:00BOSNathan HortonAssists: Milan Lucic, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 19:01PHIRuslan FedotenkoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:56PHIOliver Lauridsen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:50BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:16PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:16PHILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:16BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:16BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:26PHISimon Gagne: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic14:40
xG 1.48–0.13 (92%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Pandolfo – Peverley – Caron8:01
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:09
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin13:55
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg16:29
xG 1.39–0.42 (77%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Chara – Seidenberg2:37
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk4:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Rinaldo – Couturier8:34
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read11:54
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Knuble – Gagne – Fedotenko8:04
xG 0.06–0.17 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn13:12
xG 0.16–0.64 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson2:09
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn2:36
xG 0.01–0.03 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Gervais15:13
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).