Sat, Mar 30, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 012 | 011 | 035 |
| PIT | 05 | 013 | 29 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 8:10PITMatt CookeGWGAssists: Deryk Engelland, Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 13:04PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Douglas Murray · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:19PITDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:31NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:12PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:43NYILubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:23PITChris Kunitz: Checking from behind5 min
- P2 16:23PITChris Kunitz: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:27PITBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares13:12
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner6:37
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas4:21
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey6:21
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey14:30
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Streit – Visnovsky2:27
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:52
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Morrow – Kennedy2:48
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Kennedy2:02
xG 0.03–0.04 (48%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Dupuis – Sutter4:37
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Sutter2:41
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Niskanen2:20
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Murray – Engelland2:06
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Murray – Orpik2:50
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).