Sat, Mar 30, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 012 | 19 | 328 |
| WPG | 011 | 112 | 012 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06CARAlexander SeminAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 9:40CARJussi JokinenGWGAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 1:26WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Antti Miettinen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:28CAREric StaalAssists: Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:40WPGEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:51CARJoni Pitkanen: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:55WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:55CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:27CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min
- P2 10:14WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:08WPGGrant Clitsome: Delaying game2 min
- P2 13:48WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Kneeing2 min
- P2 17:29WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:14CARJoni Pitkanen: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Staal – Bowman6:33
xG 0.95–0.38 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Nash – Skinner7:15
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Brent – Westgarth – Bowman2:18
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty10:23
xG 0.14–0.77 (15%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason13:26
xG 1.09–0.94 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Pitkanen – McBain12:57
xG 0.99–0.95 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Harrison – Bellemore9:43
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Miettinen – Kane10:04
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Antropov – Wellwood – Tangradi4:11
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:24
xG 1.00–1.81 (35%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian13:18
xG 1.32–0.22 (86%)attempts 23–11goals 1–1
- Meech – Clitsome8:16
xG 0.22–0.87 (20%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:54
xG 0.54–1.24 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).