Sat, Mar 30, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 0, Colorado Avalanche 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 015 | 07 | 00 | 034 |
| COL | 06 | 06 | 010 | 12 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 0:50COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Greg Zanon, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:23NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:23COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:27COLMatt Hunwick: Interference2 min
- P1 13:54COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:53COLErik Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:07NSHPatric Hornqvist: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:55COLMatt Duchene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:37COLRyan O'Byrne: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestYip – Halischuk – Spaling6:35
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Erat – Gaustad – Kostitsyn10:00
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Clune – Hornqvist – Smith4:10
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Legwand – Beck – Bourque9:54
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Blum9:38
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Klein – Bartley14:48
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi14:28
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – O'Reilly – Landeskog2:45
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kobasew – O'Reilly – Landeskog3:11
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Palushaj – Olver3:02
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Palushaj – O'Reilly – Landeskog2:58
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Johnson14:55
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Zanon – Barrie13:46
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Hejda15:41
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).