Sat, Mar 30, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 210 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
| MIN | 111 | 17 | 17 | 03 | 3 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:19MINMatt CullenAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:44LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 11:24LAKJustin WilliamsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 13:53MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 8:06MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise scored
- 2. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 4. LAK Mike Richards scored
- 5. MIN Matt Cullen scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:55MINClayton Stoner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:38LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 3:05MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:25LAKJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03LAKJordan Nolan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:05LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar15:38
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Stoll – Lewis – King12:19
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan5:31
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli11:30
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Ellerby10:23
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Martinez – Doughty2:36
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Doughty2:38
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle12:28
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi10:21
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck12:27
xG 0.12–0.43 (22%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Gilbert9:27
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon16:37
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin15:36
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).