Sat, Mar 30, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 117 | 29 | 02 | 2 | 438 |
| BUF | 17 | 28 | 06 | 02 | 0 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01BUFChristian EhrhoffAssists: Jochen Hecht · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:19BUFVille LeinoAssists: Tyler Ennis, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–2
- P2 2:21WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:16BUFVille LeinoPPAssists: Marcus Foligno, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 2:43WSHTroy BrouwerSHAssists: Braden Holtby · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:20WSHMike GreenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 2. WSH Matt Hendricks scored
- 3. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 4. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:17BUFMike Weber: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:47BUFTyler Ennis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13WSHSteve Oleksy: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:13BUFNathan Gerbe: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:19WSHJack Hillen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:28WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:50BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Wolski – Beagle5:20
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Perreault8:06
xG 0.27–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:44
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Laich – Brouwer10:03
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksy8:52
xG 0.67–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carlson15:29
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Green – Alzner17:02
xG 0.30–0.93 (24%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Leino – Ennis11:57
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Foligno4:25
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Porter – Gerbe – Flynn7:48
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Pominville3:30
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Sekera10:51
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers15:12
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Myers2:11
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).