Sat, Mar 30, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 017 | 08 | 09 | 034 |
| MTL | 210 | 17 | 09 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47MTLMichael RyderGWGAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 18:11MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 11:02MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:00MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 2:43NYRKris Newbury: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:13NYRRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Stepan – Zuccarello3:46
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Hagelin – Stepan8:03
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Newbury – Miller2:06
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Callahan – Miller9:20
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto16:46
xG 0.71–0.22 (77%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Eminger3:21
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Stralman11:22
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:07
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec13:49
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Armstrong7:40
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk12:28
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin18:50
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Beaulieu15:19
xG 0.68–0.70 (49%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Gorges2:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).