Sat, Mar 30, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 111 | 16 | 26 | 423 |
| OTT | 05 | 012 | 014 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03TORJoffrey LupulPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Michael Kostka · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 12:45TORNazem KadriAssists: Joffrey Lupul, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 2:44TORNazem KadriAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 4:48TORNazem KadriAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
Penalties (22)
- P1 2:03OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:59OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:59TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:42OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:42TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:29OTTEric Gryba: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:14TORPhil Kessel: Interference2 min
- P1 12:06OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P1 14:42OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:42TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:24TORNikolay Kulemin: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:56TORMark Fraser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:46TORCody Franson: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 13:47TORNikolay Kulemin: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:00OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Interference2 min
- P3 19:01TORFrazer McLaren: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:01TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:01OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01TORFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01OTTMatt Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:01OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:01OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Brien won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:01
xG 0.25–0.15 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri9:35
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Orr – Hamilton – McLaren4:04
xG 0.01–0.16 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Frattin8:13
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson9:29
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Fraser – Kostka2:13
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser11:40
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestLatendresse – Silfverberg – Zibanejad5:44
xG 0.34–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Condra – Smith2:06
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith4:00
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris3:25
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Benoit14:13
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Wiercioch9:35
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba13:16
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).