Sat, Mar 30, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 07 | 18 | 00 | 226 |
| FLA | 18 | 013 | 18 | 11 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42NJDSteve BernierAssists: Ryan Carter, Stephen Gionta · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:55FLAShawn MatthiasPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Peter Mueller · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 7:57NJDSteve BernierPPAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Andrei Loktionov · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 19:33FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Scottie Upshall, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- OT 1:43FLADmitry KulikovGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:16FLAJerred Smithson: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:21NJDAlexei Ponikarovsky: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53FLATyson Strachan: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:41NJDMatt D'Agostini: Holding2 min
- P2 15:39NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:39FLAMarcel Goc: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:43FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:26FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:10NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Bernier – Zajac – Carter2:39
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Ponikarovsky – Sestito4:00
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Henrique3:34
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter6:23
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene9:14
xG 0.29–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Greene2:32
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Larsson8:20
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Santorelli – Shore8:12
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann9:32
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Parros – Smithson – Howden3:52
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smithson – Santorelli – Howden2:08
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Strachan14:29
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kuba – Strachan2:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brennan – Kulikov9:22
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).