Sat, Mar 30, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 0, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 010 | 08 | 05 | 023 |
| EDM | 411 | 03 | 010 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 2:05EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Jeff Petry, Lennart Petrell · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 2:43EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P1 7:53EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:42EDMRyan Smyth: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:42VANSteven Pinizzotto: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00VANTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00EDMMike Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:20EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:39VANJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P2 14:21EDMRyan Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:42VANChris Tanev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows7:28
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Gordon – Sestito4:25
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen5:07
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Raymond – Ebbett2:52
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev2:00
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bieksa2:19
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison13:13
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:43
xG 1.12–0.42 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Jones – Yakupov9:47
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell8:23
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi11:46
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry17:21
xG 0.84–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Whitney – Potter14:56
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz14:36
xG 0.80–0.68 (54%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).