Sun, Mar 31, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 012 | 29 | 231 |
| BUF | 06 | 013 | 07 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 12:54BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Nathan Horton, Matt Bartkowski · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–0
- P3 15:44BOSNathan HortonAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:08BOSMatt Bartkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:01BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:01BUFSteve Ott: Diving2 min
- P1 16:59BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P1 16:59BOSTyler Seguin: Diving2 min
- P2 5:00BOSNathan Horton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:27BOSNathan Horton: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05BOSNathan Horton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic13:02
xG 1.17–0.44 (73%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin12:54
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:13
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Peverley – Caron6:29
xG 0.04–0.50 (8%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski5:37
xG 0.86–0.07 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski4:15
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:02
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKaleta – Scott – Hodgson4:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hecht – Ott – Pominville11:17
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Porter – Gerbe – Flynn9:01
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno11:11
xG 0.70–1.01 (41%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers16:08
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Weber – Pysyk9:04
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Regehr – Weber2:57
xG 0.06–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).