Sun, Mar 31, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 018 | 29 | 340 |
| DAL | 04 | 14 | 17 | 215 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25LAKJeff CarterAssists: Mike Richards, Dustin Penner · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 13:16DALJamie BennAssists: Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 5:40LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 6:49LAKJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–1
- P3 11:04DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:55DALRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:08LAKAlec Martinez: Interference2 min
- P3 9:18LAKMike Richards: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar12:19
xG 1.20–0.14 (90%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – King2:18
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner10:57
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Clifford – Toffoli6:20
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov20:07
xG 1.56–0.88 (64%)attempts 24–21goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Doughty17:19
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Martinez – Ellerby11:38
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Eriksson – Eakin8:37
xG 0.55–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Petersen – Smith – Vincour2:55
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Roy – Eriksson7:24
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Roy – Roussel4:29
xG 0.01–0.03 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski14:52
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Rome – Larsen14:07
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Robidas – Dillon17:14
xG 0.21–1.48 (12%)attempts 9–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).