Sun, Mar 31, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 17 | 212 | 00 | 429 |
| PHI | 27 | 010 | 214 | 13 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Jack Hillen, Marcus Johansson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:26PHIMax TalbotAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 14:55PHIMatt ReadAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 18:42WSHMike GreenAssists: Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 6:22WSHMarcus JohanssonPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 6:48WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:48PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:50PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 1:34PHIRuslan FedotenkoGWGAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 15:52PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:52PHIClaude Giroux: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 18:04WSHMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:19WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min
- P2 10:19PHIOliver Lauridsen: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:36WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P2 18:55PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P2 18:55WSHKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:54PHIOliver Lauridsen: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:04PHIJakub Voracek: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P3 5:04PHIJakub Voracek: Instigator face shield2 min · PPG
- P3 5:04WSHSteve Oleksy: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:04PHIJakub Voracek: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:04PHIJakub Voracek: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:15PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:32WSHTroy Brouwer: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson8:59
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Chimera – Perreault – Beagle2:53
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti4:22
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Perreault5:41
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksy11:16
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – Green2:15
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carlson10:57
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn6:19
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Rinaldo – Couturier4:47
xG 0.38–0.28 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Gagne – Simmonds – Schenn3:12
xG 0.16–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Knuble – Gagne – Fedotenko5:22
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gervais7:33
xG 0.90–0.32 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Schenn – Gustafsson3:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Lauridsen9:00
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).