Mon, Apr 1, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 08 | 06 | 119 |
| MTL | 111 | 19 | 29 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38CARJordan StaalAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Brett Bellemore · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 15:03MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 1:46MTLJeff HalpernGWGAssists: Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 10:58MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 19:30MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:42CARKevin Westgarth: Interference2 min
- P1 14:52CARDrayson Bowman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:45MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P2 2:31MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:44MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:26MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:41CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P3 8:18MTLFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Staal – Tlusty11:31
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Staal7:08
xG 0.10–0.07 (61%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- LaRose – Brent – Westgarth2:39
xG 0.05–0.04 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- LaRose – Nash – Skinner3:07
xG 0.03–0.19 (13%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Bellemore9:48
xG 0.78–0.35 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen2:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:20
xG 1.73–0.08 (96%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Halpern – Moen – Armstrong5:28
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk6:24
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec11:24
xG 0.14–0.34 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Beaulieu13:24
xG 1.09–0.19 (85%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban13:03
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Gorges2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).