Mon, Apr 1, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 210 | 12 | 424 |
| MIN | 05 | 17 | 013 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32STLJaden SchwartzUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 6:59MINDany HeatleyAssists: Jonas Brodin, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 12:17STLAndy McDonaldGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, David Backes · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:07STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Patrik Berglund · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 19:09STLBarret JackmanAssists: Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:07MINRyan Suter: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:59STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 9:09STLKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:18STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:58STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
- P3 10:26STLDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Steen – Backes5:09
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- McDonald – Backes – Stewart2:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stewart – Berglund – Schwartz5:11
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Nichol – Porter – Reaves3:52
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo7:48
xG 0.46–0.03 (93%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Polak – Russell10:03
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk9:03
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cullen – Bouchard – Setoguchi5:50
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Rupp – Konopka – Mitchell4:29
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – Brodziak – Clutterbuck7:42
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle7:30
xG 0.03–0.23 (12%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Brodin10:42
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Stoner – Spurgeon8:31
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Clark – Gilbert6:49
xG 0.02–0.25 (7%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).