Mon, Apr 1, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 04 | 215 | 01 | 1 | 227 |
| CHI | 19 | 118 | 09 | 04 | 2 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:48CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 12:10CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 3:56NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Victor Bartley, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:26NSHTaylor BeckAssists: Patric Hornqvist, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. NSH Patric Hornqvist stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. NSH Craig Smith scored
- 5. CHI Andrew Shaw stopped
- 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
- 7. CHI Brandon Saad stopped
- 8. NSH Sergei Kostitsyn stopped
- 9. CHI Michal Rozsival scored
- 10. NSH Taylor Beck stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:58NSHPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min
- P2 10:57CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34NSHPatric Hornqvist: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:50NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:50CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Beck3:00
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 2–0
- Erat – Gaustad – Kostitsyn17:01
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Legwand – Beck – Bourque3:56
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clune – Hornqvist – Smith4:41
xG 0.15–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi21:49
xG 0.86–0.51 (63%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Klein – Bartley14:53
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Gill – Blum7:13
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Stalberg – Shaw11:13
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Carcillo – Morin – Kruger7:20
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Frolik – Toews – Saad10:44
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – Hayes2:23
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Oduya15:06
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson16:54
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Seabrook – Leddy14:54
xG 0.14–0.72 (16%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).