Mon, Apr 1, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 07 | 117 | 134 |
| EDM | 36 | 011 | 13 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52EDMJustin SchultzAssists: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:55EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 16:28EDMRyan JonesAssists: Nail Yakupov, Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 10:30EDMNail YakupovAssists: Ryan Jones, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 18:28CGYBrian McGrattanAssists: Tim Jackman, Steve Begin · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 8:30CGYBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:30EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:10EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:57CGYBrian McGrattan: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57CGYTim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57EDMMike Brown: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Backlund – Cervenka12:44
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 19–8goals 0–2
- Stajan – Stempniak – Glencross12:52
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Tanguay – Cammalleri – Comeau12:05
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Begin – McGrattan – Jackman8:55
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Smith10:23
xG 0.85–0.26 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Butler – Brodie17:17
xG 0.93–0.64 (59%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie3:56
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:30
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Jones – Yakupov11:15
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Smyth – Brown – Petrell11:49
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi9:41
xG 0.10–0.77 (12%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Schultz14:21
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 19–14goals 3–1
- Whitney – Potter17:24
xG 0.39–0.69 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry20:08
xG 0.58–1.20 (33%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).