Tue, Apr 2, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 09 | 110 | 126 |
| NSH | 011 | 09 | 318 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:01COLMatt DucheneAssists: PA Parenteau, Matt Hunwick · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 8:23NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Taylor Beck, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–1
- P3 18:46NSHDavid LegwandGWGAssists: Taylor Beck, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–2
- P3 19:45NSHPaul GaustadENAssists: Kevin Klein, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:46COLJean-Sebastien Giguere: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:46NSHRich Clune: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:35NSHDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:38COLBrad Malone: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:49COLBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:49NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:58COLRyan O'Byrne: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:02NSHChris Mueller: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:01COLBrad Malone: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Van Der Gulik – Palushaj – Olver4:52
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – Malone8:04
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- McLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:50
xG 0.28–0.49 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene11:01
xG 0.26–1.00 (21%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- O'Byrne – Hejda12:00
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson13:56
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Zanon – Barrie16:29
xG 0.39–1.27 (24%)attempts 18–26goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Beck13:27
xG 1.18–0.35 (77%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Yip – Halischuk – Mueller5:37
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Gaustad – Kostitsyn11:58
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Clune – Spaling – Smith7:28
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi19:16
xG 1.44–0.31 (82%)attempts 33–15goals 1–0
- Klein – Bartley17:28
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Gill – Blum9:18
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).