Wed, Apr 3, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 24 | 02 | 317 |
| PHI | 08 | 212 | 314 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:13MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Max Pacioretty, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:47PHISean CouturierAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Simon Gagne · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 15:43PHISimon GagneAssists: Oliver Lauridsen, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 16:29MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Jeff Halpern, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:49MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: Alexei Emelin, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 14:54PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Bruno Gervais, Kimmo Timonen · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 16:24PHIErik GustafssonGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 19:21PHIJakub VoracekENAssists: Matt Read · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:28PHIMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:12PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00PHIBrayden Schenn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:15MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:18MTLMike Blunden: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:50MTLAlexei Emelin: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 3:56MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:38PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:38MTLLars Eller: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Ryder – Plekanec5:13
xG 0.16–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Blunden6:32
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk5:03
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Halpern – Prust – Galchenyuk3:53
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bouillon – Drewiske13:09
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Gorges – Subban14:52
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Markov – Emelin14:56
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 2–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:16
xG 0.70–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Knuble – Gagne – Fedotenko6:02
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read11:01
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Rinaldo – McGinn – Couturier4:15
xG 0.01–0.42 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson2:36
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Timonen – Gervais11:23
xG 0.52–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Huskins – Gustafsson6:38
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).