Wed, Apr 3, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 06 | 211 | 225 |
| ANA | 110 | 29 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44ANARadek DvorakAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 11:33ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:38ANAKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Peter Holland, Matt Beleskey · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 2:48DALErik ColeAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 10:30ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 18:36DALLane MacDermidAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:56ANAAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Saku Koivu, Sheldon Souray · Snap, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (1)
- P2 11:04DALAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Eriksson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Fiddler – Nystrom4:11
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Roussel – Chiasson – Eakin8:17
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Fraser10:07
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn6:54
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon21:33
xG 0.86–0.66 (56%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Robidas – Daley19:46
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Rome – Larsen14:09
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Dvorak – Winnik12:34
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan11:08
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Palmieri – Holland7:11
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Koivu – Perry – Ryan2:16
xG 0.04–0.19 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Sbisa17:08
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Souray – Beauchemin19:34
xG 0.70–0.73 (49%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Allen – Fowler19:40
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).