Wed, Apr 3, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 2, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 29 | 018 | 233 |
| SJS | 210 | 111 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:19SJSDan BoylePPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 10:33MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Zach Parise, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 10:58MINDany HeatleyAssists: Justin Falk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 14:42SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 6:55SJSTJ GaliardiPPAssists: Martin Havlat, Scott Gomez · Backhand, 0.40 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:55MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:02MINClayton Stoner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:50MINClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:34MINCal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:13SJSPatrick Marleau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:13MINJustin Falk: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:20MINRyan Suter: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:06SJSJames Sheppard: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00MINDany Heatley: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Slashing5 min
- P3 0:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00SJSBrad Stuart: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle7:39
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Mitchell3:09
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Clutterbuck – Coyle2:20
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Bouchard – Mitchell – Clutterbuck3:35
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin16:31
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon2:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Falk9:27
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Burish – Desjardins7:16
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Sheppard – Galiardi12:10
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels12:17
xG 0.42–0.65 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin10:33
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Tennyson11:12
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:56
xG 0.33–0.94 (26%)attempts 9–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).