Thu, Apr 4, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Islanders 1, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 014 | 114 | 03 | 0 | 136 |
| WSH | 15 | 07 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:47WSHMike GreenAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 15:01NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WSH Matt Hendricks stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 4. NYI Brad Boyes stopped
- 5. WSH Mike Ribeiro stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:06NYIAndrew MacDonald: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:15WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20NYIBrad Boyes: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:18NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:08WSHMike Green: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:52
xG 0.66–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Reasoner – Martin – Cizikas8:38
xG 0.22–0.21 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner7:25
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares10:44
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey15:13
xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Martinek – Streit16:08
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic16:30
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:52
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Erat – Ward – Perreault10:53
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Beagle6:01
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Ward – Hendricks – Perreault2:25
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner18:13
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Hillen – Carlson15:50
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Erskine – Oleksy13:32
xG 0.20–0.40 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).