Thu, Apr 4, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 08 | 017 | 134 |
| MTL | 111 | 29 | 14 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:16WPGAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Grant Clitsome, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:47MTLMichael RyderPPAssists: Brian Gionta, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–1
- P2 2:03MTLMichael RyderGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Francis Bouillon · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 5:51MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Lars Eller, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 7:43MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Travis Moen, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:15WPGRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:32WPGEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:53MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P3 0:21MTLBrandon Prust: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:33WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 4:33MTLBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:27MTLJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:16WPGEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:16WPGEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:16MTLAlexei Emelin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov6:05
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Kane7:26
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kane – Burmistrov3:26
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Miettinen – Thorburn – Gagnon3:38
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Clitsome11:44
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma6:20
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian8:43
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:42
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Ryder – Moen – Galchenyuk8:59
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Halpern – Blunden – White10:24
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Prust – Eller11:56
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban13:15
xG 0.90–0.25 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Subban4:36
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Markov – Emelin12:06
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).