Thu, Apr 4, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 2, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 115 | 05 | 116 | 236 |
| PHX | 011 | 320 | 17 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56DETValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:47PHXMichael StoneAssists: Keith Yandle, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 8:08PHXChris ConnerAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 16:01PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 18:47DETDaniel ClearyPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:59PHXMartin HanzalENAssists: Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:54PHXRob Klinkhammer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:11DETJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:10PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:17DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:19DETJordin Tootoo: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 9:26PHXDerek Morris: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:04PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P2 13:04PHXPaul Bissonnette: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:04DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:41DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:40PHXMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P3 18:37PHXMikkel Boedker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Franzen3:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Eaves – Emmerton5:49
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Filppula – Abdelkader2:47
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Filppula4:41
xG 0.17–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Smith4:37
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Kindl7:27
xG 0.39–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Lashoff2:21
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:10
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Conner – Boedker8:57
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Brown2:40
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal10:59
xG 0.46–0.61 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson10:44
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle2:18
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson3:07
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).