Fri, Apr 5, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 212 | 07 | 06 | 16 | 331 |
| COL | 19 | 09 | 116 | 01 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:27DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:36COLMark OlverAssists: David Van Der Gulik, Aaron Palushaj · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 11:49DETGustav NyquistUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:29COLPA ParenteauAssists: Jamie McGinn, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 4:44DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:55COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:04COLPA Parenteau: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:18DETJohan Franzen: Interference2 min
- P2 17:43COLPatrick Bordeleau: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:31DETPavel Datsyuk: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:16COLTyson Barrie: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Franzen won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader13:25
xG 1.14–0.36 (76%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Filppula – Franzen – Nyquist9:48
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Cleary – Miller – Andersson9:57
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Eaves – Emmerton7:15
xG 0.23–0.51 (31%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson17:23
xG 1.47–0.42 (78%)attempts 26–17goals 1–0
- Quincey – Kindl14:23
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
- White – DeKeyser10:44
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestVan Der Gulik – Palushaj – Olver4:39
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene8:22
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- McLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog11:50
xG 0.35–0.61 (36%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Bordeleau – Malone8:03
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Barrie2:07
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Johnson15:06
xG 0.73–0.61 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Hejda – Barrie2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).