Fri, Apr 5, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Dallas Stars 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 316 | 06 | 03 | 325 |
| ANA | 19 | 09 | 010 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03DALLane MacDermidAssists: Antoine Roussel, Ryan Garbutt · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:21ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: David Steckel, Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:54DALEric NystromSHGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:12DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:57DALJamie Benn: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 13:41DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:41ANAEmerson Etem: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:41DALLane MacDermid: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:40ANAMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min
- P1 19:22ANASheldon Souray: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:43ANAMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:43ANAMatt Beleskey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:10DALTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P2 15:03DALRyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:02ANATeemu Selanne: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:30ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Eakin – Fraser7:57
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Whitney – Benn – Chiasson9:31
xG 0.37–0.52 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Nystrom7:13
xG 0.10–0.46 (17%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rome – Larsen8:36
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dillon13:03
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Palmieri – Etem5:01
xG 0.21–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Perry – Ryan9:24
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Steckel – Cogliano – Beleskey2:12
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Beleskey2:01
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Fowler10:47
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Souray – Beauchemin12:25
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Sbisa10:41
xG 0.20–0.73 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).