Sat, Apr 6, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 113 | 05 | 013 | 131 |
| WPG | 04 | 412 | 09 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07PHIRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Kent Huskins, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:38WPGGrant ClitsomeAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:05WPGKyle WellwoodGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 14:44WPGEvander KaneAssists: Mike Santorelli, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 19:06WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 4:49PHIJay Rosehill: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:03WPGEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 2:03WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:03PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:40WPGZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P3 9:47PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:56PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P3 18:44WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek5:41
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read8:29
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Couturier5:02
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Read4:11
xG 0.13–0.21 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Schenn2:59
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Lauridsen11:39
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Huskins – Schenn2:22
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wellwood – Kane9:39
xG 1.21–0.30 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:56
xG 0.91–0.59 (60%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Gagnon – Wright2:43
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov6:32
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien12:34
xG 1.19–0.15 (89%)attempts 21–5goals 2–1
- Stuart – Clitsome11:08
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian17:11
xG 0.81–0.88 (48%)attempts 18–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).