Sat, Apr 6, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 112 | 010 | 127 |
| MTL | 110 | 111 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brandon Prust, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:57MTLMichael RyderPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 7:10BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:56BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:56MTLFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:21BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:03MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lucic won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Campbell – Paille12:27
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic16:34
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Peverley – Marchand – Seguin10:29
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Pandolfo – Thornton – Daugavins2:34
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg3:23
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ference – Seidenberg8:30
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton15:01
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Galchenyuk11:44
xG 1.36–0.27 (84%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Halpern – Moen – White8:07
xG 0.13–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:52
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Gionta – Ryder – Plekanec13:53
xG 0.22–0.61 (27%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Drewiske3:45
xG 0.61–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban11:32
xG 0.98–0.41 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban3:53
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).