Sat, Apr 6, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 05 | 15 | 218 |
| NJD | 014 | 04 | 110 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49TORLeo KomarovAssists: Mark Fraser, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 8:02TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 11:37NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:21TORMark Fraser: Holding2 min
- P1 13:06TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P1 14:02TORJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:20NJDSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00TORClarke MacArthur: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:51NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference2 min
- P2 5:12TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:46NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:01NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:32NJDStephen Gionta: Holding2 min
- P3 19:17TORNikolay Kulemin: Broken stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:06
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Orr – Hamilton – Colborne2:45
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Kulemin – Kadri5:11
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Grabovski – Komarov6:03
xG 0.21–0.43 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser10:01
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson9:44
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Fraser – Gunnarsson2:25
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Sullivan – Loktionov4:53
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Elias – Sullivan – Zajac6:00
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Henrique – Loktionov3:38
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Zajac4:49
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene10:36
xG 0.66–0.08 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Harrold2:49
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky8:14
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).