Sat, Apr 6, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 315 | 05 | 431 |
| FLA | 09 | 05 | 316 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 0:43WSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.55 xG2–0
- P2 2:24WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 14:22WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–0
- P3 6:45FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, TJ Brennan · Snap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 8:29FLAPeter MuellerPPAssists: Shawn Matthias, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 19:27FLATomas KopeckyAssists: Shawn Matthias · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:25WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:25FLATyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:37FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 14:37FLAErik Gudbranson: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 19:55FLAQuinton Howden: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:50FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:14FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:53WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Perreault6:03
xG 0.36–0.26 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Erat – Brouwer3:24
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Fehr – Brouwer7:31
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ward – Fehr – Perreault3:24
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner15:22
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Erskine – Oleksy14:35
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Hillen – Carlson15:05
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Goc – Fleischmann11:15
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Skille – Bjugstad – Howden6:45
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Upshall – Skille – Bjugstad3:23
xG 0.06–0.34 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Parros – Upshall – Timmins6:22
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Strachan5:55
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Gudbranson2:50
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Brennan3:47
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).